2016 Montana gubernatorial election
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Turnout | 74.44%2.26 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gianforte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Montana |
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The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Montana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock won re-election to a second term in office with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Republican challenger Greg Gianforte. Less than a year later, Gianforte won a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and in 2020 was elected governor.
In the concurrent presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton lost Montana by more than 20%, with Bullock thus over-performing her vote share by more than 14% and her margin of defeat by more than 24%.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Steve Bullock, incumbent governor
- Running mate: Mike Cooney, incumbent lieutenant governor
- Bill McChesney, former state representative
- Running mate: Mike Anderson
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock (incumbent) | 109,450 | 91.3% | |
Democratic | Bill McChesney | 10,486 | 8.7% | |
Total votes | 119,936 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Greg Gianforte, founder of RightNow Technologies and conservative activist
- Running mate: Lesley Robinson, Phillips County Commissioner
- Terry Nelson, planning administrator for Ravalli County, Montana
- Running mate: Niki Sardot
Withdrawn
- Brad Johnson, chairman of the Montana Public Service Commission and former secretary of state of Montana
- Mark Perea, businessman and nominee for the state senate in 2012 (did not file)
Declined
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana (running for re-election)
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
- Taylor Brown, state senator
- Jeff Essman, state representative and former president of the State Senate
Endorsements
- Conrad Burns, former U.S. Senator
- Steve Daines, U.S. Senator
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana
- Rick Hill, former U.S. Representative and 2012 GOP gubernatorial nominee
- Ron Marlenee, former U.S. Representative
- Judy Martz, former governor of Montana
- Marc Racicot, former Governor of Montana
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative
- Stan Stephens, former Governor of Montana
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. Representative
- Montana Farm Bureau Federation
- Montana Chamber of Commerce
- National Federation of Independent Business
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Greg Gianforte | 109,882 | 76.4% | |
Republican | Terry Nelson | 33,987 | 23.6% | |
Total votes | 143,869 | 100.0% |
Third parties
Independent
Declared
- Christopher Zarcone
Libertarian
Declared
- Ted Dunlap, perennial candidate
- Running mate: Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate
Withdrew
- Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 19, 2016 - C-SPAN
Endorsements
- Governors
- Marc Racicot, Montana (former)
- Judy Martz, Montana (former)
- State officials
- U.S. Senators
- Steve Daines, Montana
- Conrad Burns, Montana (former)(deceased)
- U.S. Representatives
- Ryan Zinke, Montana's at-large congressional district
- Denny Rehberg, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)
- Rick Hill, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)
- Ron Marlenee, Montana's 2nd congressional district (former)
- Organazations
- National Rifle Association of America
- Gun Owners of America
- Susan B. Anthony List
- National Federation of Independent Business
- Montana Chamber of Commerce
- Montana Farm Bureau Federation PAC
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report | Lean D | August 12, 2016 |
Daily Kos | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
Rothenberg Political Report | Lean D | November 3, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics | Lean D | November 1, 2016 |
Governing | Tossup | October 27, 2016 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Greg Gianforte (R) |
Ted Dunlap (L) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 449 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 46% | 7% | 3% |
SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 410 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 44% | 8% | 3% |
SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 46% | 7% | 1% |
SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 376 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 43% | 7% | 2% |
SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 385 | ± 4.6% | 51% | 41% | 7% | 1% |
SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.6% | 53% | 39% | 7% | 1% |
Mason-Dixon | October 10–12, 2016 | 1,003 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 45% | 2% | 6% |
Montana State University Billings | October 3–10, 2016 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 32% | 3% | 20% |
- with Ryan Zinke
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Ryan Zinke (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing | February 24–25, 2015 | 1,035 | ± 3% | 44% | 44% | — | 11% |
Gravis Marketing | November 24–25, 2014 | 836 | ± 3% | 41% | 49% | — | 10% |
- with Tim Fox
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing | February 24–25, 2015 | 1,035 | ± 3% | 46% | 38% | — | 16% |
Gravis Marketing | November 24–25, 2014 | 836 | ± 3% | 41% | 45% | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | July 20–22, 2013 | 741 | ± 4% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock (incumbent) | 255,933 | 50.25% | +1.35% | |
Republican | Greg Gianforte | 236,115 | 46.35% | -0.99% | |
Libertarian | Ted Dunlap | 17,312 | 3.40% | -0.36% | |
Total votes | 509,360 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |