2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas

2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
Turnout38.39%
 
Nominee John Boozman Conner Eldridge
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 661,984 400,602
Percentage 59.7% 36.1%

Boozman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Eldridge:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes

U.S. senator before election

John Boozman
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator John Boozman won re-election to a second term in office, becoming the first Republican senator reelected in the history of the state. Former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge was the only Democrat to declare his candidacy. The primaries were held March 1. This is also the first election that the state has simultaneously voted for a Republican Senate candidate and a Republican presidential candidate.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • John Boozman, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Curtis Coleman, businessman, candidate for governor in 2014 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Boozman
Curtis
Coleman
Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College February 4, 2016 457 ± 4.6% 68% 23% 9%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 298,039 76.45%
Republican Curtis Coleman 91,795 23.55%
Total votes 389,834 100.00%

Democratic primary

Conner Eldridge was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Eldridge campaigning

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Conner Eldridge 214,228 100.00%
Total votes 214,228 100.00%

Third parties

The Libertarian Party of Arkansas held a special nominating convention on October 24, 2015, to select nominees for elections in 2016. Frank Gilbert was selected as the nominee for the U.S. Senate race.

Candidates

Nominated

  • Frank Gilbert, DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Boozman Eldridge Gilbert Link
October 12, 2016 Little Rock, Arkansas Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Safe R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics Safe R November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Boozman (R)
Conner
Eldridge (D)
Frank
Gilbert (L)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 930 ± 4.6% 56% 41% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 798 ± 4.6% 55% 42% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 56% 43% 1%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 593 ± 4.6% 54% 43% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 475 ± 4.6% 52% 46% 2%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 484 ± 4.6% 54% 44% 2%
University of Arkansas October 18–25, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 61% 38% 1%
Talk Business/Hendrix College October 21, 2016 463 ± 4.6% 52% 34% 4% 2% 8%
Talk Business/Hendrix College September 15–17, 2016 831 ± 3.4% 55% 29% 5% 3% 8%
Emerson College September 9–13, 2016 600 ± 3.6% 44% 30% 11% 15%
Talk Business/Hendrix College June 21, 2016 751 ± 3.6% 51% 29% 6% 14%
Hypothetical polling
with Mike Beebe
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Boozman (R)
Mike
Beebe (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 1–3, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 40% 46% 14%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2014 1,453 ± 2.6% 39% 49% 12%
Talk Business/Hendrix College June 8–11, 2015 1,183 ± 1.84% 37% 45% 18%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2016
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 661,984 59.77% +1.87%
Democratic Conner Eldridge 400,602 36.17% -0.78%
Libertarian Frank Gilbert 43,866 3.96% +0.72%
Write-in 1,070 0.10% N/A
Total votes 1,107,522 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

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