2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Roy Blunt Jason Kander
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,378,458 1,300,200
Percentage 49.18% 46.39%

Blunt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Kander:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Roy Blunt
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roy Blunt
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander. Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state.

Republican primary

Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.

Candidates

Declared

  • Roy Blunt, incumbent senator since 2011
  • Ryan Luethy, financial services worker
  • Bernie Mowinski, retired army sergeant and perennial candidate
  • Kristi Nichols, sales manager, Tea Party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Roy
Blunt
Kristi
Nichols
Bernie
Mowinski
Ryan
Luethy
Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–27, 2016 400 ± 5.0% 66% 9% 5% 1% 19%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Roy
Blunt
John
Brunner
Other Undecided
Remington Research Group January 2015 1,355 ± ? 60% 40%
Remington Research Group February 2–3, 2015 747 3.6% 50% 19% 32%

Results

Results by county:
 Blunt
  •  60–70%
  •  70–80%
  •  80–90%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roy Blunt (incumbent) 481,444 72.55%
Republican Kristi Nichols 134,025 20.20%
Republican Ryan Luethy 29,328 4.42%
Republican Bernie Mowinski 18,789 2.83%
Total votes 663,586 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Cori Bush, pastor, nurse and co-director of the Truth Telling Project
  • Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri since 2013
  • Robert Mack, military veteran
  • Chief Wana Dubie, marijuana activist

Declined

Endorsements

Jason Kander

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Kander
Cori
Bush
Robert
Mack
Chief
Wana Dubie
Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–27, 2016 400 ± 5.0% 67% 7% 4% 2% 20%

Results

Results by county:
 Kander
  •  40–50%
  •  50–60%
  •  60–70%
  •  70–80%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jason Kander 223,492 69.87%
Democratic Cori Bush 42,453 13.27%
Democratic Chief Wana Dubie 30,432 9.51%
Democratic Robert Mack 23,509 7.35%
Total votes 319,886 100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Jonathan Dine, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012
  • Herschel Young

Results

Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2,002 54.90%
Libertarian Herschel Young 1,642 45.06%
Total votes 3,644 100.00%

Constitution primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Fred Ryman

Results

Constitution primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Fred Ryman 545 100.00%
Total votes 545 100.00%

Green Party

Candidates

Declared
  • Johnathan McFarland

Write-in

  • Gina Bufe
  • Patrick Lee

General election

Debates

Date Host Moderator Link(s) Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Roy
Blunt
Jonathan
Dine
Jason
Kander
Jonathan
McFarland
Fred
Ryman
September 30, 2016 Associated Press David Lieb Video P P P P P

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report Tossup November 3, 2016
Daily Kos Lean R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Roy
Blunt (R)
Jason
Kander (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,368 ± 4.6% 44% 51% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,119 ± 4.6% 43% 51% 6%
Emerson College November 4–5, 2016 750 ± 3.5% 45% 46% 5% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 879 ± 4.6% 45% 51% 4%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–2, 2016 1,036 ± 3.1% 47% 45% 8%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 774 ± 4.6% 45% 51% 4%
Public Policy Polling October 31 – November 1, 2016 1,083 ± 3.0% 46% 44% 9%
Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) October 31 – November 1, 2016 1,722 ± 2.4% 48% 44% 3% 5%
DFM Research October 27 – November 1, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 41% 41% 9% 9%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 649 ± 4.6% 46% 50% 4%
Emerson College October 28–31, 2016 650 ± 3.8% 45% 45% 6% 4%
Monmouth University October 28–31, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 47% 46% 3% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 671 ± 4.6% 45% 51% 4%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R) October 27–28, 2016 1,698 ± 2.4% 47% 44% 4% 5%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon October 24–26, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 47% 46% 2% 5%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 44% 44% 4% 8%
Google Consumer Surveys October 12–14, 2016 521 ± 4.2% 45% 52% 3%
Monmouth University October 9–11, 2016 406 ± 4.9% 46% 44% 3% 7%
Emerson College September 9–13, 2016 600 ± 3.6% 40% 42% 10% 8%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) September 1–2, 2016 1,275 ± 3.0% 47% 40% 13%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,055 ± 3.0% 47% 43% 10%
Monmouth University August 19–22, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 48% 43% 3% 7%
Remington Research Group (R) August 5–6, 2016 1,280 ± 3.0% 47% 40% 6% 7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 47% 43% 10%
Public Policy Polling July 11–12, 2016 959 ± 3.2% 41% 38% 21%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) March 25–26, 2016 927 ± 3.2% 44% 37% 19%
DFM Research March 17–24, 2016 674 ± 3.8% 49% 35% 2% 14%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) Archived March 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 30–31, 2015 783 ± 3.5% 43% 33% 23%
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 40% 35% 25%
Remington Research Group (R) February 19, 2015 957 ± 3.2% 49% 36% 14%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Roy Blunt (incumbent) 1,378,458 49.18% −5.05%
Democratic Jason Kander 1,300,200 46.39% +5.76%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 67,738 2.42% −0.60%
Green Johnathan McFarland 30,743 1.10% N/A
Constitution Fred Ryman 25,407 0.91% −1.22%
Write-in 95 0.03% N/A
Total votes 2,802,641 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also


This page was last updated at 2024-03-07 16:26 UTC. Update now. View original page.

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