2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout65.20% Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316
Percentage 49.83% 46.17%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Trump won the state with 49.83% of the vote, a small decrease from Mitt Romney's vote percentage in 2012. However, he won by a margin of 3.66%, an increase of 1.62% compared to Romney's margin in 2012. In contrast, Clinton obtained 46.17% of the vote, a decrease of over 2% in 2012 when Obama won 48.35% of the vote. Although both candidates saw decreases in vote share compared to 2012, Trump and Clinton both obtained more votes than the previous election's candidates due to a higher voter turnout in this election. Trump flipped seven counties to the Republican column and was the first Republican to win Robeson, Richmond, and Gates counties since Richard Nixon in 1972. Clinton flipped just one county to the Democratic column, Watauga County, home to Boone.

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Watauga County since James A. Garfield in 1880, as well as the first to do so without carrying Bumcombe or Forsyth counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, the first to do so without carrying Wake County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, and the first to do so without carrying Pitt or Wilson counties since Richard Nixon in 1968. It was also the first time since 1980 that North Carolina voted more Democratic than Ohio.

Primary elections

The Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

County results of the North Carolina Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
 Hillary Clinton
 Bernie Sanders

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Hillary] Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57% to 34% among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont."

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 616,758 54.59%
Democratic Bernie Sanders 460,434 40.75%
Democratic No Preference 37,200 3.29%
Democratic Others (total) 15,375 1.37%
Total votes 1,129,767 100.00%

Republican primary

Republican primary results by county.
 Donald Trump
 Ted Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Donald] Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41% to 27% among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14% and 11%, respectively."

Results

North Carolina Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 462,413 40.23% 29 0 29
Ted Cruz 422,621 36.76% 27 0 27
John Kasich 145,659 12.67% 9 0 9
Marco Rubio 88,907 7.73% 6 0 6
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 11,019 0.96% 1 0 1
No Preference 6,081 0.53% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,893 0.34% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 3,071 0.27% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,753 0.24% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,256 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 929 0.08% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 663 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 265 0.02% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,149,530 100.00% 72 0 72
Source: The Green Papers

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in the Charlotte, Fayetteville and Wilmington areas. Cruz did best in Greensboro, Asheville and the Research Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capital of Raleigh are located.

Libertarian primary

2016 North Carolina Libertarian primary

March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15) 2020 →
 
Candidate Gary Johnson No Preference
Home state New Mexico n/a
Popular vote 2,414 2,067
Percentage 41.48% 35.52%

 
Candidate John Hale Joy Waymire
Home state Kentucky California
Popular vote 329 268
Percentage 5.65% 4.61%

North Carolina results by county
 Gary Johnson
 No Preference
 Tie

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:

  • John David Hale
  • Cecil Ince
  • Gary Johnson
  • Steve Kerbel
  • Darryl W. Perry
  • Austin Petersen
  • Derrick Michael Reid
  • Jack Robinson Jr.
  • Rhett Smith
  • Joy Waymire
  • Marc Allan Feldman

Results

North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage
Gary Johnson 2,414 41.48%
No Preference 2,067 35.52%
John David Hale 329 5.65%
Joy Waymire 268 4.61%
Austin Petersen 189 3.25%
Darryl Perry 118 2.03%
Steve Kerbel 109 1.87%
Derrick Michael Reid 74 1.27%
Cecil Ince 72 1%
Jack Robinson Jr. 70 1.20%
Marc Allan Feldman 66 1.13%
Rhett Smith 43 0.74%
Total 5,739 100%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
CNN Tossup November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report Tossup November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com Lean D (flip) November 8, 2016
NBC Tossup November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics Tossup November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report Tilt D (flip) November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016

Polling

Up until the summer of 2016, both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were each winning polls, with Trump leading slightly. From late June 2016 to mid September 2016, Clinton gained momentum and had won most polls conducted in the summer. From mid September 2016 to late October, Clinton's momentum increased as she won every poll but one. The latest polls showed a near tie, with both almost evenly matched. The average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton ahead 46% to 45%. Interestingly, while she had a head-to-head lead in the last polls against Trump, polls with Gary Johnson showed the race a lot closer. The last New York Times poll conducted showed Trump and Clinton tied with 44% for each.

Candidates

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.

Results

Candidate Popular vote Percentage
Donald Trump 2,362,631 49.83%
Hillary Clinton 2,189,316 46.17%
Gary Johnson 130,126 2.74%
Write-in 47,386 1.00%
Jill Stein (write-in) 12,105 0.26%
Total 4,741,564 100.00%
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections The Green Papers

By county

County Clinton percentage Clinton votes Trump percentage Trump votes Johnson percentage Johnson votes Write-in percentage Write-in votes Stein percentage Stein votes Totals
Alamance 41.93% 29,833 54.55% 38,815 2.52% 1,795 0.70% 498 0.30% 216 71,157
Alexander 20.62% 3,767 76.04% 13,893 2.39% 437 0.83% 151 0.13% 23 18,271
Alleghany 24.57% 1,306 71.76% 3,814 2.43% 129 1.24% 66 0.00% 0 5,315
Anson 55.56% 5,859 42.73% 4,506 1.22% 129 0.46% 48 0.03% 3 10,545
Ashe 26.07% 3,500 70.11% 9,412 2.47% 332 1.34% 180 0.00% 0 13,424
Avery 20.48% 1,689 76.35% 6,298 2.01% 166 0.88% 73 0.28% 23 8,249
Beaufort 36.61% 8,764 60.75% 14,543 1.78% 426 0.75% 180 0.10% 25 23,938
Bertie 61.82% 5,778 36.97% 3,456 0.75% 70 0.43% 40 0.03% 3 9,347
Bladen 44.40% 7,058 53.78% 8,550 1.33% 212 0.42% 66 0.07% 11 15,897
Brunswick 34.06% 23,282 62.50% 42,720 2.51% 1,717 0.78% 536 0.14% 96 68,351
Buncombe 54.30% 75,452 40.10% 55,716 3.08% 4,285 1.41% 1,959 1.10% 1,535 138,947
Burke 28.91% 11,251 67.42% 26,238 2.54% 988 0.83% 324 0.31% 119 38,920
Cabarrus 38.08% 35,521 57.69% 53,819 2.99% 2,786 1.04% 973 0.20% 190 93,289
Caldwell 23.20% 8,425 73.30% 26,621 2.34% 849 0.83% 302 0.34% 123 36,320
Camden 25.45% 1,274 70.83% 3,546 2.98% 149 0.58% 29 0.16% 8 5,006
Carteret 26.31% 9,939 70.32% 26,569 2.42% 913 0.74% 278 0.22% 82 37,781
Caswell 43.29% 4,792 54.44% 6,026 1.93% 214 0.26% 29 0.08% 9 11,070
Catawba 29.32% 21,216 66.79% 48,324 2.73% 1,973 0.95% 685 0.21% 153 72,351
Chatham 52.86% 21,065 42.92% 17,105 2.84% 1,130 1.03% 412 0.34% 137 39,849
Cherokee 20.17% 2,860 76.47% 10,844 2.44% 346 0.69% 98 0.23% 33 14,181
Chowan 41.39% 2,992 55.53% 4,014 2.24% 162 0.68% 49 0.15% 11 7,228
Clay 22.75% 1,367 73.83% 4,437 2.38% 143 0.90% 54 0.15% 9 6,010
Cleveland 33.50% 14,964 63.75% 28,479 1.90% 850 0.68% 305 0.17% 75 44,673
Columbus 38.19% 9,063 60.14% 14,272 1.29% 306 0.38% 91 0.00% 0 23,732
Craven 37.51% 17,630 59.00% 27,731 2.57% 1,210 0.81% 380 0.11% 50 47,001
Cumberland 56.16% 71,605 40.21% 51,265 2.65% 3,373 0.85% 1,084 0.14% 179 127,506
Currituck 22.99% 2,913 72.33% 9,163 3.80% 482 0.66% 84 0.21% 27 12,669
Dare 36.83% 7,222 58.44% 11,460 3.44% 674 1.03% 201 0.27% 52 19,609
Davidson 24.19% 18,109 72.56% 54,317 2.48% 1,859 0.65% 484 0.12% 87 74,856
Davie 24.22% 5,270 71.71% 15,602 2.90% 631 0.95% 206 0.22% 47 21,756
Duplin 39.72% 8,283 58.58% 12,217 1.25% 260 0.41% 85 0.05% 11 20,856
Durham 77.66% 121,250 18.16% 28,350 2.56% 3,999 1.28% 2,000 0.34% 535 156,134
Edgecombe 65.19% 16,224 33.20% 8,261 1.14% 284 0.43% 106 0.04% 11 24,886
Forsyth 52.98% 94,464 42.61% 75,975 3.01% 5,370 1.15% 2,054 0.25% 449 178,312
Franklin 42.39% 12,874 53.90% 16,368 2.56% 777 0.97% 296 0.17% 53 30,368
Gaston 32.33% 31,177 64.09% 61,798 2.54% 2,445 0.91% 873 0.14% 138 96,431
Gates 44.23% 2,385 53.30% 2,874 2.00% 108 0.46% 25 0.00% 0 5,392
Graham 18.43% 768 78.77% 3,283 1.78% 74 1.03% 43 0.00% 0 4,168
Granville 47.19% 12,909 49.69% 13,591 2.18% 596 0.79% 215 0.15% 42 27,353
Greene 44.53% 3,605 54.03% 4,374 1.05% 85 0.33% 27 0.05% 4 8,095
Guilford 57.98% 149,248 38.10% 98,062 2.62% 6,754 1.04% 2,667 0.26% 674 257,405
Halifax 62.57% 15,748 35.88% 9,031 1.15% 290 0.39% 98 0.00% 0 25,167
Harnett 36.33% 16,737 59.95% 27,614 2.72% 1,252 0.84% 389 0.16% 73 46,065
Haywood 34.08% 10,473 61.60% 18,929 2.95% 905 0.99% 303 0.38% 117 30,727
Henderson 34.08% 19,827 61.55% 35,809 2.79% 1,626 1.18% 687 0.39% 227 58,176
Hertford 67.84% 6,910 30.42% 3,099 1.31% 133 0.43% 44 0.00% 0 10,186
Hoke 53.35% 9,726 42.57% 7,760 3.17% 577 0.77% 140 0.15% 27 18,230
Hyde 41.88% 965 55.90% 1,288 1.82% 42 0.35% 8 0.04% 1 2,304
Iredell 29.96% 24,734 66.31% 54,754 2.65% 2,185 0.91% 754 0.17% 140 82,567
Jackson 41.22% 7,713 52.74% 9,870 3.97% 742 1.47% 276 0.60% 112 18,713
Johnston 33.01% 28,362 63.29% 54,372 2.73% 2,347 0.83% 716 0.13% 112 85,909
Jones 40.21% 2,065 57.92% 2,974 1.15% 59 0.72% 37 0.00% 0 5,135
Lee 41.74% 10,469 54.66% 13,712 2.73% 684 0.76% 191 0.11% 28 25,084
Lenoir 47.13% 12,634 50.78% 13,613 1.48% 398 0.53% 143 0.07% 19 26,807
Lincoln 24.73% 9,897 71.97% 28,806 2.43% 971 0.76% 305 0.11% 44 40,023
Macon 27.50% 4,876 68.38% 12,127 2.63% 467 1.29% 228 0.20% 36 17,734
Madison 34.84% 3,926 60.19% 6,783 2.98% 336 0.91% 103 1.07% 121 11,269
Martin 48.86% 5,846 49.29% 5,897 1.38% 165 0.39% 47 0.08% 9 11,964
McDowell 23.48% 4,667 73.30% 14,568 1.99% 396 1.15% 229 0.08% 15 19,875
Mecklenburg 62.29% 294,562 32.89% 155,518 3.28% 15,488 1.26% 5,937 0.29% 1,352 472,857
Mitchell 19.71% 1,596 77.59% 6,282 1.70% 138 0.69% 56 0.30% 24 8,096
Montgomery 35.96% 4,150 61.79% 7,130 1.76% 203 0.44% 51 0.05% 6 11,540
Moore 33.54% 16,329 62.62% 30,490 2.78% 1,355 0.95% 464 0.11% 54 48,692
Nash 48.75% 23,235 48.92% 23,319 1.57% 750 0.63% 301 0.13% 60 47,665
New Hanover 45.56% 50,979 49.46% 55,344 3.53% 3,949 1.06% 1,184 0.40% 449 111,905
Northampton 62.39% 6,144 36.37% 3,582 0.94% 93 0.29% 29 0.00% 0 9,848
Onslow 30.65% 17,514 64.97% 37,122 3.37% 1,926 0.84% 481 0.16% 92 57,135
Orange 72.78% 59,923 22.54% 18,557 2.92% 2,404 1.21% 997 0.56% 459 82,340
Pamlico 35.63% 2,448 61.98% 4,258 1.80% 124 0.44% 30 0.15% 10 6,870
Pasquotank 49.54% 8,615 47.04% 8,180 2.54% 442 0.70% 122 0.18% 32 17,391
Pender 33.54% 9,354 63.26% 17,639 2.45% 683 0.56% 157 0.19% 52 27,885
Perquimans 34.57% 2,319 62.27% 4,177 2.42% 162 0.64% 43 0.10% 7 6,708
Person 39.93% 7,833 57.02% 11,185 2.14% 419 0.72% 142 0.18% 36 19,615
Pitt 51.94% 41,824 44.32% 35,691 2.68% 2,162 0.84% 680 0.21% 170 80,527
Polk 34.16% 3,735 61.90% 6,768 2.49% 272 0.98% 107 0.48% 52 10,934
Randolph 20.43% 13,194 76.55% 49,430 2.17% 1,403 0.69% 446 0.16% 102 64,575
Richmond 43.98% 8,501 53.72% 10,383 1.72% 333 0.45% 87 0.12% 24 19,328
Robeson 46.54% 19,016 50.82% 20,762 1.97% 803 0.62% 252 0.06% 25 40,858
Rockingham 33.65% 14,228 63.46% 26,830 2.06% 871 0.70% 294 0.13% 55 42,278
Rowan 30.14% 19,400 66.51% 42,810 2.36% 1,517 0.88% 564 0.12% 78 64,369
Rutherford 24.79% 7,512 72.16% 21,871 2.06% 624 0.86% 261 0.13% 39 30,307
Sampson 40.68% 10,547 57.23% 14,838 1.52% 393 0.58% 150 0.00% 0 25,928
Scotland 52.55% 7,319 44.92% 6,256 1.82% 254 0.52% 73 0.19% 26 13,928
Stanly 23.71% 7,094 73.42% 21,964 2.22% 664 0.56% 169 0.09% 26 29,917
Stokes 20.69% 4,665 75.90% 17,116 2.53% 571 0.77% 173 0.11% 25 22,550
Surry 23.26% 7,488 73.52% 23,671 2.30% 739 0.78% 250 0.15% 48 32,196
Swain 35.86% 2,196 58.21% 3,565 3.92% 240 1.53% 94 0.47% 29 6,124
Transylvania 36.70% 6,558 58.87% 10,520 2.74% 489 1.23% 220 0.46% 82 17,869
Tyrrell 41.40% 720 56.07% 975 1.61% 28 0.63% 11 0.29% 5 1,739
Union 32.48% 34,337 63.10% 66,707 3.15% 3,327 1.11% 1,176 0.15% 163 105,710
Vance 61.22% 12,229 36.70% 7,332 1.47% 294 0.49% 97 0.13% 25 19,977
Wake 57.38% 302,736 37.16% 196,082 3.69% 19,460 1.44% 7,606 0.33% 1,740 527,624
Warren 65.16% 6,413 32.66% 3,214 1.48% 146 0.70% 69 0.00% 0 9,842
Washington 56.93% 3,510 41.59% 2,564 1.05% 65 0.41% 25 0.02% 1 6,165
Watauga 47.15% 14,138 45.68% 13,697 4.46% 1,336 1.80% 539 0.92% 275 29,985
Wayne 42.95% 21,770 54.33% 27,540 1.90% 963 0.76% 383 0.07% 33 50,689
Wilkes 21.21% 6,638 75.89% 23,752 2.07% 647 0.73% 228 0.10% 31 31,296
Wilson 51.56% 19,663 45.97% 17,531 1.75% 667 0.67% 256 0.05% 18 38,135
Yadkin 17.93% 3,160 78.76% 13,880 2.26% 398 0.86% 151 0.20% 35 17,624
Yancey 32.09% 3,196 64.11% 6,385 2.62% 261 0.77% 77 0.41% 41 9,960
Totals 46.17% 2,189,316 49.83% 2,362,631 2.74% 130,126 1.00% 47,386 0.26% 12,105 4,741,564

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 10 of 13 congressional districts.

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 30% 67% G. K. Butterfield
2nd 54% 42% Renee Ellmers
George Holding
3rd 60% 36% Walter B. Jones
4th 27% 68% David Price
5th 57% 39% Virginia Foxx
6th 56% 41% Mark Walker
7th 57% 39% David Rouzer
8th 56% 41% Richard Hudson
9th 54% 42% Robert Pittenger
10th 60% 36% Patrick McHenry
11th 62% 33% Mark Meadows
12th 28% 68% Alma Adams
13th 53% 44% Ted Budd

Analysis

Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since 1968 with the state voting Democratic only once between then and 2008. In 2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. Although the state returned to the Republican column in 2012, when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state, it did so only narrowly, cementing its new status as a battleground state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, with the outcome going into election night heavily debated. The Trump campaign saw winning North Carolina as crucial in order for Trump to win the Electoral College; conversely, the Clinton campaign felt that it was vital for them to win the state to block Trump's path to an Electoral College win. Both Trump and Clinton campaigned in the state shortly before the general election.

Despite winning the state, Trump, in some ways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.

An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.7% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama. Trump's win in North Carolina marked the 9th time the state has voted Republican in the last 10 elections and, therefore, the state continues to lean more Republican at the presidential level.

See also


This page was last updated at 2023-11-25 17:23 UTC. Update now. View original page.

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